Box Office:  The box office is recovering from the devastation of the pandemic and the labor strikes, but it’s slow.  The domestic BO remains down around -23% from pre-pandemic levels.

 

During the last pre-pandemic year in 2019, 58 franchise series films earned $22.77 billion at the worldwide B.O., more than four times as much as the 80 non-franchise original, single-episode films.  In other words, the 42% franchise releases earned 83% of Hollywood wide-release worldwide B.O., while the 58% non-franchise films earned $4.82 billion, or 18%.

 

Think about that for a second.

 

There was enormous growth in international B.O. for franchise films starting in 2009, in part because of the mix of films but also because of the growth of the international markets, especially China.  In 2018, international slowed a bit, but in 2019 it jumped again.  Since then, China has all but collapsed as a foreign market for American films, while other developing countries have continued to grow and replaced a lot of China’s contribution.

 

Non-Franchise Films:  The non-franchise worldwide total hit its lowest level ever in 2019 — $4.82 billion.  The spread between franchise and non-franchise worldwide B.O. jumped in 2012 and it increased again in 2015, 2016 and 2017.  The spread increased again in 2019.  2023 was a big year for non-franchise films, lead by Oppenheimer’s giant performance around the world.

 

Since late 2018 there have been fewer strong, single episode, non-franchise releases.  Oppenheimer was the biggest non-franchise film since Titanic in 1997 (Oppenheimer made $976m, Titanic made $1.84 billion).  Before that, the biggest recent non-franchise films — Once Upon a Time in… and 1917 — finished under $400m worldwide.  Compare that with Bohemian Rhapsody ($904m, 2018), Coco ($807m, 2017), Gravity ($723m, 2013), Interstellar ($678m, 2014), The Martian ($630m, 2015), Life of Pi ($609m, 2012), and American Sniper ($547m, 2014).

 

The movie business needs strong non-franchise films to stay fresh and expand audiences.

New Franchises:  There were 20 new franchises launched in 2024, which is a good bounce-back following the pandemic.  However, their box office remains low compared with 2017, 2018 and 2019 (it was $3.12 billion worldwide in 2024).

 

New franchises are the lifeblood of the commercial movie business.  We need more of them, with bigger box office.

Franchise Age — Sequels, Prequels, Spin-offs, Remakes, and Episode Numbers:  The number of sequels, prequels, spin-offs, and remakes has been lower following the pandemic, and the average episode number for these films is also down.  In other words, fewer long-running series, and younger series, than before.  There’s nothing wrong with that, except that we need strong new series to replace the old ones.

 

In the long-term, most franchises eventually either wrap up, slow down or wear out; again, that is why new franchise creation is so important (chart 03 above).

Box Office by Episode:  On average, franchise movies grow slightly at the box office in episodes #2, and then international business grows in episode #3.  Episode #4 takes a big step up both domestically and internationally, before business falls in episode #5.

 

There is enormous episode variation by genre and franchise — each has its own dynamics.

The average RT score has settled in the mid-60s during the last several years.  That’s up sharply from where it started when RT was founded by three college students in the Bay Area in the late 1990s.  Those dilettantes had no experience in film criticism or in the movie industry, but they caught on during the early years of the internet with their snarky attitude and dismal numbers.  The average Tomatometer score is flattening now, after rising sharply over the last 10 years.

 

Between 1997 and 2010, the scores averaged a depressed 44.7.  Someone needed to step in and clean this up, and Warner Bros. and Universal did that when they bought the website in 2011 and 2017.

 

Going forward, we have several concerns:

 

1. The scores are getting a little bit bubbly. If a score of 60 & up gets a shiny red tomato, and a score of 59 & lower gets an ugly green splat, then the average should be around 60. The last four years have been higher than that;

 

2. Why celebrate and condemn movies with two simple labels in the first place? Is a 60-score movie good, and a 59-score movie bad? No. Many movies fall into the middle ground between 40 and 59. They should be recognized differently;

 

3. Finally, many movies still carry those negatively-biased, pre-2011 scores wherever they appear on viewing apps and websites. In 2004, 73.4% of wide releases got the ugly green splat. Those early scores are unfair and misleading to this day. RT should acknowledge the issue and adjust those scores.

This is not a new story — it’s been covered over the years.  Rotten Tomatoes dominates this space.  It was worse before, it’s better now, but it’s far from perfect.  We suggest holding your nose and using it.  That’s what we do.