OF NOTE

Franchise and non-franchise movies

During the last pre-pandemic year in 2019, 58 franchise films earned approximately $22.79 billion at the worldwide BO, more than four times as much as the 80 non-franchise original, single-episode films earned. In other words, the 42% franchise releases earned 82.5% of Hollywood wide-release worldwide BO, while the 58% non-franchise films earned $4.79 billion, or 17.5%.

Think about that for a second.  See it visually in chart 02 here.

The post-pandemic market

With the pandemic behind us, we see the following patterns in the theatrical market:

1. The line between big screen theatrical movies and small screen TV movies is drawn more sharply than ever.  Franchise movies dominate moviegoing more than ever (see figures above).  This trend started 20 years ago, and it will continue.
2. A flexible theatrical release window means that some movies will move in and out of release more quickly.  A 30-day window covers four weekends; by that time, most movies have made 95%+ of their money.  If there is more money to be made in theaters, a movie will play longer so that no theatrical money is left on the table.
3. The hybrid streaming experiment has ended.  Hybrid releases made the best of a bad situation, but it was a compromise for all stake-holders.  For big screen releases, the theatrical-first business remains the most profitable, and it also brings the greatest value to the after-markets, including streaming.

Rotten Tomatoes rising

• Between 1997 and 2010, wide release movies averaged a  44.7% Tomatometer score;
• From 2011 to 2018, the average picked up to 52.2%;
• In 2022 it hit 67.2%, and it has leveled off since then.

Are movies improving? No, they’re the same. Rotten Tomatoes has said that the increase comes from adding more critics, with more diverse backgrounds, but that doesn’t add up — one set of professional critics would not be more positive than another set.

The flaw:  There is a flaw that continues to plague Rotten Tomatoes, outlined in chart 06 here.

New franchise films update

New franchises are the lifeblood of the commercial movie business.  There were 13 new franchises in 2019, the fewest number of new franchises since 2007, although they earned $2.96 billion, which is strong ($228m per film).   See it here in chart 03.