Box Office Modeling & Analytics

Box office modeling and analytics for domestic and international markets based on our proprietary database of all wide releases — 3,406 movies

Models


Weekend Box Office: Mar 13 to 15, 2020

Domestic Weekend Box Office, Mar 13 to 15, 2020
Onward (BV/Pix) $10.6m
Bloodshot (Sony) $9.2m franchise, launch
I Still Believe (LG) $9.1m
Invisible Man (Uni/Blum) $5.9m franchise, launch
The Hunt (Uni/Blum) $5.3m
Sonic the Hedgehog (Par) $2.5m franchise, launch
The Way Back (WB) $2.4m
Call of the Wild (BV/Fox) $2.2m
Emma. (Focus) $1.3m
Bad Boys 3 (Sony) $1.1m franchise, episode 3

Current Top-10:  Four of the top-10 movies during the most recent weekend were franchises, with 35% of top-10 box office and 29% of all domestic box office coming from these four films.  Four franchises in the top-10 is roughly average among wide releases (average is 42% of all wide releases).

OF NOTE

Franchise and non-franchise business

In 2019, 58 franchise films earned approximately $23.0 billion at the worldwide B.O., more than five times as much as the 80 non-franchise films. In other words, the 42% franchise releases earned 83% of Hollywood wide-release worldwide B.O., while the 58% non-franchise films earned $4.6 billion, or 17%.

Think about that for a second.  See it visually in chart 02 here.

Rotten Tomatoes rising

  • Between 1997 and 2010 wide release movies averaged a  44.7% Tomatometer score;
  • From 2011 to 2018 the average picked up to 52.2%;
  • And in 2019 wide releases scored 60.1%.

The Rise:  Rotten Tomatoes recently reached an important threshold: For the year 2019, the average RT score for wide releases hit 60.   60 is an important number because movies with a 60 or better receive a shiny red tomato with their score, while movies below 60 get an ugly green splat.   A picture is worth a 1,000 words and those shiny tomatoes and green splats are important — they’re everywhere.   2019 finished with an average score of 60.1.

The Flaw:  There is a flaw that continues to plague Rotten Tomatoes, outlined in chart 06 here.

Franchise creation update

New franchises are the lifeblood of the commercial movie business.  There were 13 new franchises in 2019, the fewest number of new franchises since 2007, although they earned $4.7 billion, which is excellent ($363m per film).   See it here in chart 03.