Movie Modeling & Box Office Analytics
Box office forecasting for domestic and international markets based on our proprietary database of all wide releases — 3,305 movies
Weekend Box Office Notes: Apr 19 to 21, 2019
|Domestic Opening Weekend Box Office, Apr 19 to 21, 2019|
|Curse of La Llorona (WB/NL)||$26.0M||franchise launch|
|Shazam! (WB/NL)||$16.5M||franchise launch|
|Captain Marvel (Dis)||$9.0M||franchise launch|
|Dumbo (BV)||$7.1M||franchise, remake|
|Pet Sematary (Par)||$4.6M||franchise, episode #3|
|Missing Link (UA)||$4.6M|
|Us (Uni)||$4.1M||franchise launch|
|Hellboy (LG)||$3.8M||franchise, episode #3|
Current Top-10: Seven of the top-10 movies this weekend are franchises, with 75% of top-10 box office and 68% of all domestic box office coming from these seven films. Seven franchises in the top-10 is above average (average is 40% of all wide releases).
The non-franchise drought
Since the beginning of 2017 there have been fewer strong, single episode, non-franchise releases. Among dramas, only Bohemian Rhapsody, A Star is Born and Dunkirk have earned more than $180 million at the domestic box office. Compare that with American Sniper ($350M, 2014), Inception ($293M, 2010), Gravity ($274M, 2013), The Martian ($228M, 2015), Interstellar ($188M, 2014) and The Revenant ($183M, 2015).
Among comedies, only The Upside and Girls Trip have earned more than $100 million, compared with Bridesmaids ($169M, 2011), The Heat ($160M, 2013), Identity Thief ($134M, 2013), Silver Linings Playbook ($132M, 2013), and Central Intelligence ($127M, 2016).
The movie business needs these non-franchise films to stay fresh and expand audiences. Where will they come from in 2019? At the moment they are missing.
Rotten Tomatoes rising
- Between 1997 and 2010 wide release movies averaged a 44.6% Tomatometer score;
- From 2011 to present the average picked up to 52.6%;
- And in 2018 wide releases scored 57.6%.
Rotten Tomatoes’ scores started rising in 2011 and they continue to improve to this day. Have movies improved critically? Probably not. Did Rotten Tomatoes adjust its algorithm? Don’t know for sure. Warner Bros. bought Rotten Tomatoes/Flixster in 2011, and NBCUniversal/Fandango bought a majority stake in 2016.
This is a positive trend — there’s no reason the movie review cup should be less than half-full. However, if you were involved with a pre-2011 movie that carries an unduly negative review score for the rest of its life throughout the internet, you’re out of luck.
Franchise creation update
New franchises are the lifeblood of the commercial movie business (see chart 03 on Movie Industry Charts page here):
- There were 14 new franchises in 2018, following 19 in 2017 and 21 in 2016. The 14 new franchises in 2018 was the fewest since 2011.
- The new franchises in 2018 opened 27% higher than the new franchises in 2017 when you include Black Panther; however, without Black Panther, new franchise openings were 6% lower in 2018 than in 2017.
- In 2019, the number of new franchises will increase to 22 — a positive development.